Fig. 1

Study design and overview. This study employed two primary datasets, the base and target datasets. Base: The African Partnership for Chronic Disease Research (APCDR) dataset, encompassing 14,126 participants from South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, and Nigeria, and the target was the Africa Wits- INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Research (AWI-Gen) dataset which included 10,602 participants from Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa. Polygenic scores for 14 cardiometabolic traits were derived using the p-value thresholding method combined with linkage disequilibrium (LD) clumping. The African subset of the 1000 Genomes Project (1 KG) served as the reference panel. Predictive modelling evaluated the efficacy of genetic, non-genetic, and integrated models in forecasting disease outcomes. The map included in the figure visually represents the approximate geographical distribution of the cohorts, with the position circles indicating the location. Key acronyms: APCDR, African Partnership for Chronic Disease Research; AWI-Gen, Africa Wits- INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Research; CVD, cardiovascular disease; GWAS, Genome-Wide Association Study; LD, Linkage disequilibrium; PGS, Polygenic score